Demand for UK-made goods grows, but cost pressures intensify
22 April 2010
The UKs manufacturing sector is strengthening with exports growing and the first rise in domestic orders in two-and-a-half years, the CBI said today. But the UKs leading business group warned that output price inflation is rising and profit margins are coming under renewed pressure because of increased costs.
The CBI’s latest quarterly Industrial Trends Survey revealed rising orders for UK manufacturers in the three months to April. Of the 439 firms surveyed, 34% said the volume of total orders rose, while 23% said they fell. The resulting rounded balance of +12% is the first significant growth since January 2008.
The improvement in total orders was driven by strengthening overseas demand. A third of firms (33%) reported a rise in export orders, and 12% a fall, giving a rounded balance of +20%. That is the strongest balance since July 1995 (+21%) and was better than expected (+13%).
A modest rise in home-grown demand also contributed to the rise in total orders. 30% of firms said domestic orders increased, and 25% said they decreased. The resulting balance of +5% marks the first growth since October 2007 (+5%), and was better than the flat performance that had been predicted.
However, orders and output are recovering from thirty-year lows, and the level of total order books remains below normal (-36%).
Looking ahead, strong growth in orders is expected in the next quarter. 32% of firms predict an increase in total orders, and 13% a fall, giving a rounded balance of +20%. A balance of +18% expect exports to increase, and a balance of +12% predict a rise in domestic orders.
Given improving demand at home and abroad, manufacturing production is expected to pick up in the next quarter (+14%), following a subdued April quarter (+1%) during which firms ran down their stocks further.
Sentiment about the overall business situation is continuing to improve, with a net 24% more optimistic than three months ago. This is the highest quarterly improvement in sentiment since January 1994 (+27%).
Cost pressures are intensifying. A net 20% of firms reported average unit costs rising, compared to +5% in the four previous quarters, and higher than the +7% expected. During the April quarter domestic prices were stable (-1%), but firms anticipate increasing their prices more rapidly in the next three months (+16%), as higher costs feed through.
“Manufacturing appears to be on an upward trend. After eight consecutive quarters of falling domestic orders, home-grown demand is slowly starting to recover," says CBI chief economic adviser, Ian McCafferty (pictured). “The appetite for UK-made goods overseas is growing strongly, thanks to the relative weakness of Sterling and the gradual recovery of the global economy. With demand expected to strengthen further and stocks running low, UK firms are planning to step up production in the next quarter.
“Given the improving picture, manufacturers are feeling more optimistic about the business situation. However, sharply rising raw material prices are pushing up costs, and firms plan to raise prices over the next three months to alleviate some of the squeeze to profit margins.”
Over the past three months firms continued to de-stock, with a balance of -9% indicating that levels of finished goods fell in the quarter. However, de-stocking appears to be coming to an end, with stocks of finished goods and work in progress expected to stabilise in the coming quarter, and the decline in stocks of raw materials slowing.
Access to credit and finance appears to be improving, but is still a challenge for smaller firms. 5% of all firms cite credit or finance as likely to limit output over the next three months, and 9% say it will constrain export orders.
Employment continued to fall, but at a slower rate. A balance of -12% indicated staff numbers fell in the quarter, and a similar decline is expected in the next quarter (-11%).
Investment intentions for the year ahead are subdued, similar to those in January’s survey. A net 8% of firms are planning to invest on training and retraining, and a net 12% on innovation. Capital expenditure on buildings is expected to decline (-16%) over the next 12 months, while no change is expected in spending on plant and machinery (+1%). 62% of firms say they are working below capacity.
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