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UK growth holds steady, though manufacturing slows: CBI

07 April 2015

UK economic growth held steady in the three months to March and is expected to gather momentum over the next quarter, according to the CBI’s latest Growth Indicator.

Katja Hall

The survey of 764 businesses brings together economic-activity survey data from a range of business sectors. It shows stronger growth in the distribution (retail, wholesale & motor trades) and consumer services sectors in March, compared with the previous month.

That compensated for a weaker performance in manufacturing, where 11 of the 18 sub-sectors reported slowing growth since February, and in business & professional services where firms have been feeling the effect of stronger competition.

The overall reading of +18 percent for the three months to March shows that private sector growth was almost unchanged from the three months to February (+19 percent). However, businesses expect growth to strengthen, driven in particular by a pick-up in business & professional and consumer services, and in the manufacturing sector.

The balance of expectations for business growth over the next three months (April – June) is +25 percent. That represents an increase on the +18 percent that was actually recorded in March but also still represents a significant scaling back of expectations compared with this time last year.

“The outlook for 2015 looks encouraging," says Katja Hall (pictured), CBI Deputy Director General. "Our surveys show it’s been a solid start to the year with the prospect of stronger growth to come. The benefits of lower oil prices should be increasingly felt; with cheaper petrol boosting households’ incomes and spending power, and cutting costs for many businesses.

“The main risk to the UK economy comes from the Eurozone, with continuing wrangling over Greece’s bailout package stoking uncertainty. Plus, many businesses will also have to contend with a stronger pound weighing down on already weak export growth.”

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