CBI says manufacturing conditions 'remain challenging'
17 September 2009
Manufacturers' order books remained depressed last month, with demand for UK-made goods at home and abroad still very weak, and firms expecting little change in production in the coming quarter.
Of the 555 UK manufacturers responding to the CBI’s latest monthly Industrial Trends Survey, 8% of firms described the volume of their total order books as above normal, while 56% said they were below normal, giving a balance of -48%. That was a slight improvement on the balance of –54% in August, but is the 15th consecutive month where a negative balance has been recorded.
Export order book levels were well below normal, despite the relative weakness of Sterling. 7% of manufacturers said they were above normal and 53% said they were below normal. That gives a balance of -46%, little changed from -48% in August.
Firms anticipate little change in production in the coming quarter, with 27% expecting volumes of output to fall in the next three months, while 25% predict an increase. The resulting balance of -2% compares with a balance of -5% in August, and is the least negative prediction since June 2008 (+2%).
Ian McCafferty, CBI Chief Economic Adviser (pictured), said:
"The end of the dramatic de-stocking that characterised the first half of the year has allowed manufacturing output to stabilise, but order books remain depressed, and the outlook uncertain.”
Stock adequacy held steady in September, with a balance of 13% of firms reporting levels more than sufficient to meet demand.
Manufacturers are also expecting little change in domestic prices over the next quarter (a balance of -4%), suggesting that worries about the threat of deflation are receding.
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