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Where will machinery production recover first?

21 June 2010

Following the global economic downturn, machinery production has now returned to growth in the vast majority of nations. This is not surprising considering the magnitude of the decline in 2008 and 2009. More interesting is when production will return to the peak levels seen before the downturn.

According to the forecasted figures as part of the IMS Research Machinery Production Yearbook, many countries will still not have regained the machinery production of 2007 or 2008 even by 2013.

IMS Research forecasts that, of the large regions, only Asia Pacific will have surpassed their pre-recession levels.  This recovery will, of course, be fuelled to a large extent by China, but many other fast-growing economies such as India and South Korea will also have recovered.

In Europe, however, with established, developed industries throughout the region, recovery will take quite a bit longer. The current uncertainties of sovereign debt, and the sluggish growth of the general economy associated with the severe cuts in public expenditure to be taken across Europe, contribute to the slow predicted rate of recovery of machine production.

In America, the picture seems a little brighter. Having come out of the recession slightly earlier than Europe, and with the recovery looking slightly smoother, machinery production is predicted just about to have regained in 2013 the levels seen before the recession.

The difference between the regions performances is quite striking, with machinery production in Asia Pacific predicted to grow by over 11% in 2010, in the Americas by just under 4%, and in Europe by less that 3%.

(If the graphic is unclear in your browser window, the blue line represents Europe, the red represents the Americas and the green, Asia Pacific. The associated dotted lines indicate the pre-recession peak in each geographical location)

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